|
位置：首页 >> 期刊文章
|
|
摘要：
|
|
为了精确预测航道未来货运量需求,克服传统预测方法无法实现复杂非线性拟合的缺点,分析了航道货运量的影响因素,探讨了遗传规划方法在航道货运量预测问题上的应用。根据遗传规划中复制、交换、变异等进化方式,建立了基于遗传规划的航道货运量预测模型。以江苏省连申线苏北段历年货运量及区域经济发展状况为样本,采用遗传规划方法自动找出货运量随时间变化的规律,并对未来货运量进行了预测。结果表明,本算法的计算相对误差很小,预测结果合理可信,且优于常用的回归预测,为解决航道货运量等非线性系统预测提供了一条新的途径。
|
|
In order to accurately forecast the future waterway freight and overcome the disadvantages of the traditional method,a new method based on Genetic Programming(GP) was presented and the influencing factor of waterway freight was analyzed.According to the evolution way of reproduction crossover or mutation,the forecast model of waterway freight based on GP was put forward.In an instance about the waterway freight and economic data of Lian-Shen waterway in Jiangsu province,the changing rules of freight with economics are found by the genetic programming method and the waterway freight of the coming years is forecast.The account results demonstrate that this arithmetic is better than the usual regress method,the relative error is limit,and the prediction is reasonable.Therefore,it provides an effective method to solve non-linear forecasting problem as waterway freight.
|
|
基金项目：
|
|
国家西部交通建设科技项目(200532822225)
|
|
作者简介：
|
|
|
|
参考文献：
|
|
[1]卞华,肖慎,殷兆进.水网地区航道网技术评价指标与方法研究[J].水运工程,2006,9(1):47-51.
[2]蒋惠园,杨大鸣.货运量预测方法的比较[J].运筹与管理,2002,11(3):74-79.
[3]赵春,刘增高,王炜.道路货运量预测的遗传规划方法研究[J].交通与计算机,2005,23(1):53-56.
[4]冯宏琳,张玮,廖鹏.基于灰色系统理论的船闸货运量预测研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2006,30(1):117-119.
[5]钱芳.“ANN”在水运量预测中的应用[J].科技,2006,(4):46-47.
[6]乐美龙,方奕.基于遗传规划方法的集装箱吞吐量预测[J].上海交通大学学报,2003,37(8):1 246-1 249.
[7]狄为民,王梅杰.基于遗传规划的相关关系预测方法研究[J].河南科学,2004,22(1):92-95.
[8]Koza J R.Genetic programming:on the program-mine of computersbymeans ofnatural selection[M].Cambridge:The MITPress,1992.
[9]李敏强,寇纪凇.遗传算法的基本理论与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[10]云庆夏,黄光球,王战权.遗传算法和遗传规划[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1997.
[11]钱芳.水运量预测方法及其应用研究[D].南京:河海大学硕士论文,2006,3.
[12]江苏省交通规划设计院.盐灌船闸工程可行性研究调查报告[R].2005.
|
|
服务与反馈：
|
|
【文章下载】【加入收藏】
|
|
|
|
|